August 14 - The Return of The Gridiron Breakdown

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The Gridiron Breakdown: Super Bowl LIII

Image from Wikipedia

The Big Game is finally here and we have quite an interesting match up with the New England Patriots vs. the Los Angeles Rams.

For Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, this is their ninth (9th!) trip to the final dance of the NFL season. A run that deserves its place in history and will be revered the way the 1972 Miami Dolphins or the 1970s Pittsburgh Steelers are remembered. And, spoiler alert, it is probably not the last time we see this duo in this spot.

Sean McVay, whose coaching tree is as hot as a Post Malone single among young party-goers, guides an exciting offense built around a fantastic offensive line. A lot of focus is on QB Jared Goff and the Wide Receivers but the strength of that attack is up front and in the backfield.

Patriots.com

Keys to a Patriots Victory
The offensive recipe for New England involves them doing what brought them here at the end of the season and through the playoffs. First, Tom Brady is the best quick-release QB of all time. His number under pressure in those situations are better than most Hall of Fame players at the positions. So, let Brady be Brady with the dink and dunk down the field to his array of targets. Oh, and expect Rob Gronkowski to get several targets as still makes huge plays. Second part is stick with the three-headed running attack of Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead. I expect to see the Patriots utilize their 22 personnel packages often to open up the middle running lanes and set up their short passing game. It's always quite effective for ball-control.

On defense, New England needs their DBs to play aggressively against the Rams receiving corps. Bump and run, get your hands on them, be physical against those guys and you can disrupt the timing of their complex route tree.

Keys to a Rams Victory

TheRams.com

Todd Gurley and that offensive line have got to be a major focus of the Los Angeles game plan on Sunday. CJ Anderson tends to be the up-the-middle running back. The Patriots defense is susceptible to outside runs though. That's where Gurley shines. That sets up play action which is where Jared Goff and the aforementioned complex route tree can carve up a defense. But, in my opinion, Gurley in the running and pass-catching game are where the Rams can have success against the aggressive Patriots defense.

Defensively, the Rams should pile on as much pressure up the middle as they can with Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald. Brady gets rid of the ball fast, but with enough pressure, he can't get it far down the field and that lets the fast back seven for the Rams to work well and make tackles in space.

Pick and MVP
This should be a fantastic game with a good bit of back and forth. In the end, I cannot come up with enough reasons that in a one-game scenario Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams can out-duel Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. I'm taking the Patriots to win a close one that is not decided until late. For MVP, I think Tom Brady wins his fourth award. Off all the things the Patriots need to do to win the game, Brady is the catalyst for all of the offense and, ultimately, the difference.

New England Patriots 27, Los Angeles Rams 24

The Gridiron Breakdown: Preliminary Super Bowl Thoughts

No matter how the conference championship games went, I was convinced we were getting a quality and interesting Super Bowl with any combination of the final four teams. So what is the story line for Super Bowl LIII? I think the key word is "innovation" for this one.

Oh, the lazy narrative is the Old Guard (Patriots) vs. New Wave (Rams). Both of these teams and coaches represent the best the NFL fosters in terms of innovation.

"The Patriot Way" is as hard to duplicate as it is to doubt. Bill Belichick and his staff are the absolute masters of situational football. On defense, they take away something important for the opposing offense and dare you to beat them with what's left. (And teams do succeed in that from time to time. No team is unbeatable.) On offense, we've seen the Patriots go from a power attack, to a wide open pass-heavy offense, to now ball-control (with pass and run) clock-eating multiple nightmare to defend. And all of that is rests on Tom Brady's superior ability to distribute the ball. The Patriots run of success isn't luck or conspiracy. It's from being tops in situational preparedness.

The Rams represent the shiny, new things NFL teams are now obsessed with, but it's really just an evolution of previous schemes. Sean McVay gets a lot of deserved credit for his offense and the ways he deploys his play makers to create mismatches in space. What's he's done is take the West Coast/90s Zone Blocking schemes and added the wrinkle of more shotgun and bunch WR forms while moving the QB out of the pocket. That creates all kinds of coverage and role confusion for teams defending that. The Rams defense is pretty simple; they create pressure from the middle of the line to disrupt timing in your backfield. Coverage can be spotty for them but only a few teams have time to exploit that.

The X's and O's of this Super Bowl fascinate me and over the next week we are going to be treated to a lot of discussion about that, but you are going to have to look for it. I venture a good bit of media coverage will be on the controversial call in the NFC Championship Game and asking Tom Brady how much longer he can play. Cut your way through that mess and you will find there's plenty of people breaking down the match ups in the game.

Thanks for reading. Please share with others and I'll be back next Friday for a full Super Bowl preview and picks. Monday on the blog I'll be reviewing the dueling Fyer Festival documentaries on Netflix and Hulu. Also, we now have a PODCAST. It's available everywhere podcasts are found. The intro episode will tell you about the format of the show and first episode will drop in early February.

The Gridiron Breakdown: NFL Conference Championships

It's the end of the run for teams in the AFC and NFC teams. This the ticket to punch for the Super Bowl in a couple weeks. We get the top seeds in both conferences squaring off for the title.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints
Sunday, January 20, 3:05 PM ET - FOX
The New Orleans Saints are the most consistent and complete team in the NFL this season. The offense can be dynamic with Drew Brees and Michael Thomas in the passing game. The running game can be brutal with Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, and that outstanding offensive line. Don't sleep on the defense either. The Saints have bottled up several outstanding units this year. The Los Angeles Rams have a fabulous offense as well. Todd Gurley and the Rams line have led a fantastic rushing attack while Jared Goff and a cadre of receiving threats gave opposing teams fits. The Rams defensive front is great; Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh, and crew are a havoc unit. When these teams played in early November, the Saints exposed what is the Rams biggest issue - the defensive backfield - and jumped out to a big lead. That's the Saints best plan against such a dynamic team and that weakness is the one place they can create problems for the Rams. Los Angeles has a good chance here if they can control the line of scrimmage and clock they way they did against the Cowboys. That is a lot easier to say than do against the Saints defense. New Orleans is at home. Brees and company are just too good for me to pick against them here, but I think it's a close game.

New Orleans Saints 34, Los Angeles Rams 27

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 20 6:40 PM ET - CBS
It's going to be cold - really cold - in Arrowhead Stadium for the AFC Championship Game. There's a lunar eclipse happening. And the Patriots are looking at a chance for an eleventh (11th!) trip to the Super Bowl and the ninth (9 times!) for the Belichick-Brady era. All that is standing in their way is the most dynamic offense and quarterback in the league. What Patrick Mahomes is doing from that position is the poster example of how the wide-open college-style offense has infected (what a word) the NFL game. Fact is Mahomes is surrounded by playmakers all over the field (Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce) and Andy Reid deploys his QB and those guys in creative ways to generate points. Damien Williams has emerged at RB after Kareem Hunt's disciplinary exit this season. The Chiefs defense is another story. Until last week when they absolutely stymied the Colts, this unit was a huge liability. The KC defense stacked the box to take away the Colts rush game and got pressure on Andrew Luck who didn't have time to unload deep passes. That's not how the Patriots roll though. New England has reinvented itself so many times with Tom Brady at the QB spot but there most dangerous form is the one they have now. The Patriots use short, quick passes to dink and dunk down the field to James White and Julian Edleman. This eliminates the pass rush because Brady gets rid of it so fast (and we all know the deep ball isn't really in his game at this age). But make no mistake, the Patriots can line up in 21 or 22 personnel and pound the ball with RB Sony Michel between the tackles as good as any team. New England's defense hasn't been its usually dominate self but they are fast and their coaching staff is the best at taking away the opponent's favorite piece and forcing the game pace. The weather isn't going to matter as both teams are used to playing in these frigid conditions. Experience is what matters here. For all the bells and whistles of the Chiefs offense, that defense is a liability. And having such a big liability against the best tactician to ever walk the sidelines with greatest quarterback of all time is a too tall a hill to conquer.

New England Patriots 27, Kansas City Chiefs 24

The Gridiron Breakdown: NFL Divisional Playoffs

The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs is upon us and we got some really interesting match ups in these games.

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, 4:35 PM, NBC
Defending the Chiefs offense with Patrick Mahomes at QB is really, really hard. However, he's not inhuman and the Colts defense knows their best shot is to get in his face as much as possible. The best help to the Colts defense is the Colts ball-control, balanced offense. Andrew Luck and his WRs are in top form and the rebuilt offensive line can run block and protect the pocket as well as any team in the league. The Chiefs defense will need to play their best game of the season to get the Colts off the field on third down and that's where the game is won in my opinion. The Colts may be the road team but they are the more balanced team and as a friend of mine often likes to say, balance works every time it's tried. The Colts can move up and down the field and can hold off the Chiefs offense just enough for them to find a win in Arrowhead.
Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 27

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams
Saturday, 8:15 PM, FOX
The Rams offense has fallen off the back end of the season while the Cowboys offense has soared since adding WR Amari Cooper to the mix. The Dallas defensive line has generated pressure and that is a concern for the Rams if they can't get the run game going because it takes away their play action passing attack. The Rams star RB Todd Gurley is healthy enough to play here and getting going in priority one. The big key here is the Rams defense. They have to take away the run from the Cowboys and keep consistent pressure on Dak Prescott in order to limit the damage the passing game can do. I think this is a defensive game with the slightest of edge going to the home team, but I won't be surprised to see it go the other way.
Los Angeles Rams 20, Dallas Cowboys 16

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots
Sunday, 1:05 PM, CBS
Make no mistake, these Patriots are not as special as previous iterations. They've been up and down all year but found a way to win the division and secure the #2 seed regardless. The Chargers are an excellent road team with a passing offense led by the immortal Phillip Rivers and a really good defense. New England's offense is still led by the GOAT, Tom Brady, who has a running game at his disposal. I won't be surprised to see the Patriots line up and run the ball at the Chargers a lot in this game. I think that's what the Chargers are going to do as well. So, expect a short game with the running backs on display but home field advantage matters especially when it comes to the Patriots.
New England Patriots 16, Los Angeles Chargers 14

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 4:40 PM, FOX
The Eagles under Nick Foles are a team you absolutely cannot give any opening to because they will find a way to capitalize and hurt your team. However, this is different because there isn't a more complete team in the playoffs (or the league this year) than the New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees leads an amazing offense that can throw, run, go fast, ball control, you name it. The Saints defense is absolutely ferocious and has shut down more powerful offenses than the Eagles this year. The Eagles are not a great run defense and that's where the Saints are going to find openings early which will lead to shots in the passing game. This remains close for a little bit, but the Saints are the better team and will win comfortably.
New Orleans Saints 34, Philadelphia Eagles 20

Those are my thoughts and picks for the NFL Divisional Round. As always, thanks for reading. Leave your comments below and follow me on Twitter.

The Gridiron Breakdown Special: Clemson Stands Supreme

I was wrong. Incredibly wrong about the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. I thought Alabama was going to win this all along. In the last week, I had convinced myself Alabama was going to win big.

Nope. Not even close. Clemson 44, Alabama 16. 

Photo from al.com

Alabama dug in a hole early after a pick six and while they answered a couple of times, Clemson kept coming and knocking them down. Each time the Crimson Tide stood up, they were clearly staggered. And then the dam broke. Clemson poured on 17 points to end the first half and walked into the locker room up 31-16. Alabama hit the panic button early in the 3rd Quarter with a horrendous fake field goal and Clemson stuffed it. Two of the Tigers true freshmen followed up with a big play score and the game was over for all purposes.

Alabama had been challenged once in the season - the SEC Championship Game against Georgia - and had responded the way we've come to expect them to respond coming back and winning the game. But this was different. Alabama was off-kilter all night. Credit to the Clemson defense and coaches and to their offense for never going away from what they were. In spite of not looking great early on, the Tigers offense found gear and never let up on the opposing Crimson Tide.

Photo credit Ben Margot, AP

So, where do we go from here? Many (including me) think these two teams could wind up in the same spot next season, playing for the championship in New Orleans. Clemson will have to find replacements for that outstanding defense, but the offensive firepower remains intact. Alabama will need to plug some holes on the offensive line and on defense as well, but much of their skill talent and back end is returning. The interesting story lines will be how Clemson handles this level of success having now officially joined the elites in college football and if Alabama can once again respond in the face of defeat to go on another run in their historic dynasty. And what of the rest of the field? Can Georgia get over the hump? Can Michigan? Will Ohio State remain relevant after Urban Meyer? Can Oklahoma find a defense? Is Texas really back? Can anyone in the PAC 12 do...anything?

For now, 2018 will go down as a year where chalk reigned supreme. But it was the orange piece and not the familiar crimson-hued stick that stood tall at the end of the season.

As always, thanks for reading. Please comment below, share with folks, and follow me on Twitter.

The Gridiron Breakdown: National Championship and NFL Wild Card Games

College Football Playoff National Championship
Alabama vs. Clemson
Monday, January 7
Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

We've reached the end of the college football season and the two teams left standing are exactly who most of us thought - Clemson and Alabama. Look, fatigue or not, these two programs have been the class of the sport for few years now. Clemson's recent run of success is only surpassed by the absolute dynasty Nick Saban runs for Alabama. These two teams have staged some classic games in the previous three playoffs and this year's chapter should be another good one.

The key match ups are along the lines of scrimmage. Can Clemson handle Alabama's front? They certainly didn't last year. Can Alabama's offensive line stop the rotating onslaught from the Clemson defensive front? The teams with good defensive fronts Alabama played were able to limit the Tide's explosive offense for parts of games before giving up a big play. There's reason to think these match ups balance out over the course of a game. So what gives? The difference is Alabama's offense. They can attack opposing defenses from so many points - outside to in - for me to not give them the ultimate advantage in this game. Couple that with the fact that no team adjusts better over the course of a game than Nick Saban's team.

I expect Alabama to jump out early, but not as far as they did in the semifinal vs. Oklahoma. Clemson will battle back and make it a close half. Alabama pulls away in the third quarter and stands atop college football once again.

Alabama 38, Clemson 24


NFL Wild Card Games
This is an exciting set of wild card playoff games for the NFL. You can make an argument for any one of these teams to win and I expect this postseason will be wildly popular for football fans.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
The Colts got hot after a slow start are present a tough challenge for their AFC South rivals in the Texans. Houston may be a little beat up but they have explosive tools on both sides of the ball. Playing at home matters but when it's a division opponent, that is negated due to familiarity. The Colts know exactly where they are playing and who they are playing. The reason I like the Colts here is the Colts offense and the ability to control the ball and the clock. Andrew Luck and company get a big playoff win to extend the remarkable work Frank Reich and staff have done this season.
Indianapolis 24, Houston 20

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys
While no one was watching, Pete Carroll and Seattle rebuilt that defense while Russell Wilson and the offense found balance again. This team fights hard and with confidence. Dallas was in a free fall early this season and to their credit, pulled out of it, won the division, and find themselves hosting a playoff game. The addition of Amari Cooper to the passing game changed so much for the better and was worth the draft pick compensation. Both teams rely on their run game to control the opponent and the clock so expect this one to be a slug-fest won in the trenches. I'm going with Seattle here with the edge given because of the coaching experience on the sideline and the experience on the field.
Seattle 19, Dallas 16

Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens
Chargers' QB Phillip Rivers said the only team that flat out beat his squad this year was the Ravens led by that league-leading defense. Baltimore's D was great in every facet this year. They gambled with a QB change and the insertion of Lamar Jackson provided the spark they needed. Make no mistake though, Jackson has a long way to go as a passer. The Chargers have a great defensive unit of their own and shouldn't be overlooked at all. The key is going to be on their offense though. Rivers and co. will need to manufacture first downs in key situations for them to have a chance. I'm picking the Ravens though being the home team with that great defense to find a way to win a close game.
Baltimore 20, Los Angeles 17

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
The Bears defense is severe in every way. They can take away everything you want to do and that gives their offense more chances and short fields. The Eagles offense with Nick Foles is such a fun thing to watch though. Doug Pederson and his remaining staff put him in great situational match ups and Foles cashes in almost every time. For the Eagles to have any chance, they are going to need that offense to put points on the board and force the Bears to play shootout ball which is not their strength. The Bears defense is so good and being at home gives them the edge they need to knock out last year's Super Bowl winner and advance to the next round.
Chicago 24, Philadelphia 21

Let me know your picks for the National Championship and Wild Card games. As always, thanks for reading and please share with others.