Friday, February 1, 2019

The Gridiron Breakdown: Super Bowl LIII

Image from Wikipedia
The Big Game is finally here and we have quite an interesting match up with the New England Patriots vs. the Los Angeles Rams.

For Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, this is their ninth (9th!) trip to the final dance of the NFL season. A run that deserves its place in history and will be revered the way the 1972 Miami Dolphins or the 1970s Pittsburgh Steelers are remembered. And, spoiler alert, it is probably not the last time we see this duo in this spot.

Sean McVay, whose coaching tree is as hot as a Post Malone single among young party-goers, guides an exciting offense built around a fantastic offensive line. A lot of focus is on QB Jared Goff and the Wide Receivers but the strength of that attack is up front and in the backfield.

Patriots.com
Keys to a Patriots Victory
The offensive recipe for New England involves them doing what brought them here at the end of the season and through the playoffs. First, Tom Brady is the best quick-release QB of all time. His number under pressure in those situations are better than most Hall of Fame players at the positions. So, let Brady be Brady with the dink and dunk down the field to his array of targets. Oh, and expect Rob Gronkowski to get several targets as still makes huge plays. Second part is stick with the three-headed running attack of Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead. I expect to see the Patriots utilize their 22 personnel packages often to open up the middle running lanes and set up their short passing game. It's always quite effective for ball-control.

On defense, New England needs their DBs to play aggressively against the Rams receiving corps. Bump and run, get your hands on them, be physical against those guys and you can disrupt the timing of their complex route tree.

Keys to a Rams Victory
TheRams.com

Todd Gurley and that offensive line have got to be a major focus of the Los Angeles game plan on Sunday. CJ Anderson tends to be the up-the-middle running back. The Patriots defense is susceptible to outside runs though. That's where Gurley shines. That sets up play action which is where Jared Goff and the aforementioned complex route tree can carve up a defense. But, in my opinion, Gurley in the running and pass-catching game are where the Rams can have success against the aggressive Patriots defense.

Defensively, the Rams should pile on as much pressure up the middle as they can with Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald. Brady gets rid of the ball fast, but with enough pressure, he can't get it far down the field and that lets the fast back seven for the Rams to work well and make tackles in space.

Pick and MVP
This should be a fantastic game with a good bit of back and forth. In the end, I cannot come up with enough reasons that in a one-game scenario Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams can out-duel Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. I'm taking the Patriots to win a close one that is not decided until late. For MVP, I think Tom Brady wins his fourth award. Off all the things the Patriots need to do to win the game, Brady is the catalyst for all of the offense and, ultimately, the difference.

New England Patriots 27, Los Angeles Rams 24

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